President-elect Trump and senior Republican leaders are gearing up for a bold wave of executive actions starting on Day 1. Vice President-elect Vance revealed plans to sign dozens of executive orders, with Trump suggesting over 100 could be issued immediately.
Key priorities include immigration, deregulation, bureaucracy reform, and potential tariffs, reflecting Trump’s campaign promises. Immigration changes are expected to take center stage, with plans to terminate work authorizations for over 3 million individuals with discretionary status. Wolfe Research predicts this could significantly impact labor force growth, potentially dragging it down by over 200,000 per month by mid-2025.
Deregulation is also a focus. Trump may lift restrictions on LNG exports and halt ongoing regulatory processes like Basel III Endgame. However, many changes will require longer rulemaking processes beyond executive orders.
Bureaucracy reform initiatives include mandatory return-to-office policies, hiring freezes, and the controversial "Schedule F" proposal to shift some civil service roles to political appointments. These actions are deemed legally viable and are expected to face minimal market impact.
On tariffs, no concrete Day 1 plans have been confirmed. While staff-level discussions have occurred, Wolfe Research suggests a cautious approach, with only surgical measures or ultimatums likely in the short term. The risk remains if Trump enacts 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, a move that could strain trade relations.
These executive orders aim to make a swift impact while signaling Trump’s commitment to fulfilling campaign promises, though their broader economic implications remain uncertain.